Deutsche Bank expects the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) to keep interest rates at their current levels at its upcoming meeting at the end of this week.

In a research note, the bank said movements in the Egyptian pound's exchange rate are among the most important factors behind holding rates, especially given the possibility of waning foreign investor appetite for Egyptian debt instruments and further portfolio outflows.

Deutsche Bank noted that foreign investors' holdings of Egyptian treasury bills exceeded USD 25 billion at the end of June, before falling by about USD 13 billion to USD 14 billion during March 2026 — a reflection of the scale of flows that could leave the market if pressure on investors returns.

It added that mounting pressure on the pound, coupled with foreign portfolio outflows, could push the CBE to raise interest rates in order to preserve the real interest rate margin and limit the fallout from a weaker local currency.

The bank's estimates assume that a fuel price increase of between 10% and 15% will be postponed to the first quarter of 2027, while exchange-rate movements and foreign investment flows remain the main factors shaping the path of inflation and monetary policy decisions in the coming period.

The CBE Meeting

The CBE's Monetary Policy Committee will hold its seventh meeting of 2026 next Thursday, 29 October 2026, to decide on deposit and lending rates, after holding them steady at its last meeting in September.

At its September meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee decided to leave the key policy rates unchanged. The overnight deposit rate, the overnight lending rate and the rate of the CBE's main operation were kept at 19.00%, 20.00% and 19.50%, respectively. The credit and discount rate was also kept at 19.50%. The decision reflected the committee's assessment of the latest inflation developments and expectations, as well as changes in the surrounding risks.