Ahmed Issa, CEO and Managing Director of First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB) Misr, said any discussion of external debt must explain how it relates to the Egyptian economy's need for investment and jobs. He stressed the importance of explaining to citizens where project financing comes from and how it helps raise output and employment.

Speaking at a panel discussion titled "Monetary Resources and Debt Management" at the Egypt Forum 2026, Issa said about 2 million Egyptians will turn 21 in 2027. He estimated the labor market's needs at about 1.5 million jobs during the year, which would require capital formation of nearly EGP 5 trillion, directed toward building factories and hotels and expanding projects and various economic activities.

He added that raising investment on this scale is a complex financing exercise that requires diversified funding sources. Improving economic conditions, he stressed, depends on opening the way for investment capable of creating jobs and absorbing new entrants to the labor market.

Issa pointed to the limited level of domestic savings relative to the investment required, saying that by his estimate, based on a recent report by the Institute of National Planning, it ranges between 1.2% and 1.5% of gross domestic product.

Even assuming it rises four- to six-fold next year to around EGP 2 trillion, he explained, a financing gap of about EGP 3 trillion would remain. That gap would have to be covered from external sources in their various forms to complete the investment needed to create about 1.5 million jobs.

He said the ideal scenario is to attract external financing in the form of foreign direct investment, which would provide the capital needed to set up projects and create jobs. However, estimating the size of the inflows that could be attracted calls for a degree of realism given global competition for investment.

He noted that annual foreign direct investment inflows to Egypt in normal conditions reach about USD 18 billion or 19 billion, according to the estimates he presented, excluding years that see exceptionally large investment deals.

He added that shifts in the global economy and the waning momentum of globalization make competition for foreign direct investment harder, which means financing needs must be met from other sources, including external borrowing.

In the case he set out, reliance on external debt is tied to the volume of investment needed to create jobs. Without diversified funding sources, he said, the country may be unable to carry out the projects required to meet employment needs.

Issa stressed that external debt should be judged by how it is managed and what it is used for. Borrowing can be sound policy if it funds productive assets and investments, provided conditions are met that ensure its cost can be borne and its obligations honored.

The first of these conditions, he said, is keeping the current-account deficit under control, because it shapes investors' assessment of the country's ability to repay, and therefore the cost of external borrowing and of insuring against default risk.

He noted that the energy balance deficit reached about USD 18 billion in the latest fiscal year, according to the estimates he presented, and stressed the importance of closing the gap between energy production and consumption needs as part of efforts to improve the current account and reduce foreign-currency needs.

The second condition, he added, is that the financed assets and projects generate a return above the cost of the debt, so that financing costs can be covered from the returns on these investments.

The third element relates to the cost of insuring against default risk. He said Egypt has seen a sharp fall in this cost in recent years, describing the pace of improvement as remarkable compared with what he has witnessed in developing countries over some 30 years in banking.

A lower cost of default insurance, he explained, improves access to financing on better terms and strengthens the ability to channel it into investments that create jobs and generate returns that can cover its cost.

On the investment climate, Issa said the bank, as an Egyptian bank with foreign capital, has resumed opening new branches and increasing its local investments, driven by the significant improvement in economic policy in recent years.

He said exchange-rate flexibility in the first half of the year helped the Egyptian economy limit the negative fallout from geopolitical tensions, describing it as one of the factors supporting the economy's ability to cope with external shocks.

He noted that the efforts of the Ministry of Investment and the General Authority for Investment, including expanding investment zones, offering golden licenses and simplifying procedures, are helping cut the time needed to launch new projects and improve the business environment for the private sector and foreign investors.

He added that these measures, together with the lower cost of insuring Egyptian debt, support investor confidence and help increase foreign direct investment inflows into the Egyptian market.

He stressed that the main goal is to attract investment that creates enough jobs, explaining that higher demand for labor supports citizens' incomes, while the expansion of productive activities helps raise productivity and improve living standards.

Issa concluded that the Egyptian economy is moving in the right direction, but that communication with citizens and foreign investors needs to be deepened, and the link between investment, financing and employment explained, to strengthen understanding of economic policies and their goals.