QNB said Poland's reclassification from an emerging to a developed market recognises the economic and institutional progress the country has made over the past three decades, backed by market-economy reforms, accession to the European Union and deeper integration into Western European supply chains, at a time when its nominal gross domestic product (GDP) has passed USD 1 trillion.

In its weekly report, the bank said that since the end of central planning in 1989, Poland has achieved a remarkable economic transformation that has brought it close to the ranks of the world's 20 largest economies, at a time when it has received an invitation from the United States to take part as a guest in the G20 during the US presidency of the group in 2026.

The report noted that global financial markets increasingly recognise this progress, with S&P Dow Jones Indices announcing last August that it would upgrade Poland from an emerging to a developed market, effective from the reconstitution of its indices in September 2027.

The bank pointed out that the decision brings the S&P Dow Jones Indices classification in line with those of FTSE Russell and STOXX, both of which reclassified Poland as a developed market in 2018.

The report explained that index providers base their assessments on criteria including macroeconomic and political stability, the size and liquidity of financial markets, and how easily foreign investors can access them.

It added that the assessment concluded that Poland meets developed-market criteria, citing its resilience in the face of economic and political challenges, including inflationary pressures and delays in public investment.

The bank said the reclassification reflects the institutional and economic progress the country has made in recent decades and the convergence of its fundamentals with the requirements of developed markets.

The report identified three main factors supporting Poland's reclassification: its continued outperformance in growth rates, its record of maintaining macroeconomic stability, and the deepening of its domestic capital markets.

It said Poland continues to post growth rates above those of its European peers, even amid a renewed energy price shock, reflecting sustained economic momentum despite external pressures.

According to Statistics Poland, the Polish economy grew by 3.6% in 2025, while GDP growth accelerated to 3.9% year on year in the second quarter of 2026, from 3.5% in the first quarter of the same year.

By contrast, the EU economy grew by 1.4% year on year, according to Eurostat data, highlighting the gap in the pace of growth between Poland and the bloc as a whole.

The report said this performance is all the more significant given the pressure from higher oil and natural gas prices in the second quarter of the year, against the backdrop of escalating tensions between the United States and Iran.

Looking ahead, the European Commission expects the Polish economy to grow by 3.5% in 2026 and 2.8% in 2027, placing the country among the EU's fastest-growing economies over the two years.

The bank noted that investment has become an increasingly important driver of economic growth in Poland, supporting the sustainability of its economic expansion. According to Statistics Poland, gross fixed capital formation rose by 8.4% year on year in the second quarter of 2026.

The European Commission expects investment's contribution to growth to strengthen in the coming period, driven by a larger share of domestic components in new defence spending.

In this context, the report noted that Poland received the largest share of allocations under the EU's defence-focused Security Action for Europe (SAFE) programme.

On foreign investment, the bank highlighted that private capital is an additional structural pillar of the Polish economy: the stock of inward foreign direct investment reached about USD 345 billion in 2024, equivalent to about 38% of GDP, reflecting how deeply Poland is integrated into European production networks.

On the second factor, QNB said Poland's notable macroeconomic stability rests on a credible monetary policy framework that has helped contain inflationary pressures. The report explained that inflation, after exceeding 18% in early 2023, began to ease as a result of monetary tightening by the National Bank of Poland, bringing inflation back to its target of 2.5%, plus or minus one percentage point.

It noted that this improvement allowed the National Bank of Poland to cut its reference rate by a total of 200 basis points since 2025, to 3.75%. However, the recent energy price shock has tested the resilience of this framework, with headline inflation rising to 3.4% in August, just below the upper bound of the target range. Looking ahead, the European Commission expects inflation to ease to 2.9% in 2027, with the expected price path remaining tied to developments in global commodity prices.

On the other hand, the bank said public finances remain one of the biggest challenges to maintaining macroeconomic stability, with the fiscal deficit reaching 7.3% of GDP in 2025, the second highest in the EU. This makes fiscal consolidation after the parliamentary elections scheduled for November 2027 one of the key issues to be addressed in the coming period.

The third factor, according to the report, is the deepening of Poland's capital market and its growing appeal to international investors, amid strong equity performance and a rising foreign share of trading. According to the Warsaw Stock Exchange (WSE), the WIG20 index, which tracks the 20 largest and most liquid domestic blue-chip companies, delivered a total return of 30.8% up to early September 2026, compared with a 12% return for the S&P 500 and 11.6% for the MSCI World index.

In a sign of the growing presence of international investors, foreigners accounted for a record 73% of trading on the Warsaw Stock Exchange's main market in the first half of the year, while primary market activity picked up, with ten initial public offerings (IPOs) completed so far this year.

The report said the final hurdle is an upgrade of Poland by MSCI, which still classifies it as an emerging market; the Warsaw Stock Exchange expects this upgrade to come within the next three to five years.

The bank concluded that the upgrade by S&P Dow Jones Indices is formal recognition of what Poland's economic fundamentals have pointed to for some time: sustained growth outperformance increasingly led by investment, a credible monetary policy framework, and a deepening capital market.

It noted that gaining developed-market status could broaden the investor base and lower the cost of financing, while the economy's path ahead depends on fiscal consolidation after the 2027 elections and an upgrade of the country by MSCI.