J.P. Morgan: AI agents completing purchases autonomously are projected to represent $2–$5 trillion by 2030
J.P. Morgan sees five major shifts powering payments in 2026 — and the direction of travel is clear: faster, frictionless, and blockchain-powered.
The 2026 Payments Outlook covers two very different worlds — retail payments and treasury operations.
Retail payments are about experience.
JPM sees a fabulous opportunity for agentic commerce as 65% of consumers expect frictionless payments, yet only 45% of merchants are prioritizing one-click checkout.
This gap is in theory where agentic payments can make their mark:
↳ AI agents completing purchases autonomously are projected to represent $2–$5 trillion by 2030
↳ This represents 3–7% of global payment volumes transacted without a human clicking “buy.”
The problem remains that merchants who haven’t solved one-click checkout are simply not ready for agents, and perhaps not ready for the increased merchant fees they will bring.
Treasury payments are about infrastructure.
Corporate treasuries show encouraging signs of progress:
↳ 87% of organizations report at least some level of automation.
↳ While only 3% have a fully automated treasury and payments system, 36% are mostly automated.
JPM showcases its Kinexys treasury programs, and I give them tremendous credit for advancing digital treasury.
Note that they use deposit tokens, not stablecoins, even minimizing mention of its famed JPM Coin to one tiny chart.
The offerings below speak for themselves in showing the power of a blockchain treasury system:
↳ Blockchain Deposit Accounts (BDAs) — Programmable blockchain-based accounts denominated in 8 major currencies, enabling 24/7 near real-time cross-border payments and liquidity optimization
↳ Deposit Tokens — Behave like commercial bank deposits but issued on blockchain, usable for faster payments, trading, settlement, and collateral
↳ Kinexys 24/7 FX & Programmable Payments — Access and convert currencies on demand through round-the-clock FX execution
↳ Kinexys Confirm — Validates account information to optimize payments security and efficiency
↳ Kinexys Tokenization Service — Enhances asset lifecycle efficiency with tokenization
Speed Means Fraud
The faster payments move, the more attractive they become to criminals, and the data in this report is stark:
↳ Global cybercrime cost an estimated $10.5 trillion in 2025
↳ Deepfakes now account for 40% of biometric fraud
↳ 79% of U.S. businesses were hit by payments fraud last year
↳ Losses from authorized push payment fraud alone forecast to exceed $3 billion by 2028
The Execution Gap
Payments are making progress, but the gap between ambition and execution remains the industry’s most persistent problem.
JPM paints a compelling vision of how AI, API connectivity, and blockchain will automate routine functions for both retail and wholesale payments.
That said, when 55% of merchants can’t manage one-click checkout, and 65% of companies have barely automated treasury functions, it’s clear that this is a transformation that won’t happen overnight.
JPM shows that a big disruption in payments is coming, but implementation will be uneven, with early adopters likely to reap the most benefits.
