EBRD Raises Economic Growth Forecast to 3.1% for 2025
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has raised its economic growth forecast for this year to 3.1%, marking the first upward revision in more than a year. However, the Bank cautioned that rising tariffs and ongoing geopolitical conflicts could weigh on growth prospects in 2026.
In its latest report—covering emerging economies across Europe, Central Asia, the Middle East, and Africa—the EBRD highlighted a modest upward adjustment to growth projections for 2025. The Bank noted, however, a divergence in performance, with emerging European economies slowing relative to other regions.
The updated forecasts do not yet include the most recent member countries, such as Iraq and six Sub-Saharan African states including Nigeria, Kenya, and Ghana. These nations were, nevertheless, incorporated for the first time into the scope of the report.
Beata Javorcik, the Bank’s Chief Economist, emphasized that high debt levels, a resurgence of inflation, ongoing wars, and escalating tariffs remain significant risks to member economies. She also pointed out that U.S. imports from these regions grew during the first half of the year, though much of the increase was driven by results in the first quarter, prior to the introduction of new tariff measures.
